IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall across India in September 2026

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall across India in September 2026, according to its outlook issued for September 1. The forecast comes after rainfall in August recorded a deficit of more than 16%, while the month was also the warmest August in India since 1901.

The IMD said El Niño conditions are expected to influence weather patterns during the period. The conditions could affect agricultural productivity and water availability, although the forecast does not quantify the potential impact.

High temperatures are expected to persist across various regions. The Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to remain neutral, with the outlook indicating that these conditions will not provide an enhancement to rainfall.

The IMD’s forecast indicates that the monsoon season may end with overall deficient cumulative rainfall. Rainfall is not expected to be uniform across the country, with regional variations and more significant deficits in some areas.

The September outlook follows the August rainfall shortfall and the high temperatures recorded during that month. It also places the expected end of the monsoon season against a combination of below-normal rainfall, continuing heat and weather patterns influenced by El Niño conditions.

The forecast does not provide a uniform estimate for every region in the research available. Instead, it indicates that the scale of rainfall deficits will vary across India, while the national outlook for September remains below normal.